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Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a critical journey to Washington to confer with US President Donald Trump. This marks the first in-person meeting between the two figures following months of rising strains and sharp exchanges.

Agenda for Discussion

The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are set to be top on the agenda when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.

Background of Tensions

While the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation following a recent American action, Petro has since said he believes there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier commented that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".

Tuesday's meeting comes after months of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has often condemned repeated US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.

"His stance shifted," Trump reportedly saying ahead of the White House meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the flow of cocaine heading north, and has vowed to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.

But, the hostility seemed to subside following a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an complete reversal "by both parties".

Mediating Role

According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."

Border Security and the Guerrilla Group

Prior to Tuesday's visit, Colombian stated that much of the conversation would focus on shared US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long border.

A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.

From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to guaranteeing security for US firms involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the potential to disrupt investment plans by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An equally pressing issue for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's biggest source of the drug. In November, Petro ordered a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities after comments from Washington.

The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, including the leader and his relatives.

"There is no fight without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "The threat to cut off Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Potential Outcomes

But even with several issues for collaboration, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."

But for Petro, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His time in office concludes in the coming months, and the outcome of the talks could influence the political future of his preferred successor.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable situation," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If it doesn't, he's defending national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favor."