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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|